Appendix C: Methodology for Forecast of Labour Supply and Demand for Cultural Occupations
To derive the projections for occupations in the cultural sector, we incorporated the Conference Board’s most current long-term macroeconomic and industrial forecasts. The forecasts are generally closely aligned with those used by Employment and Social Development Canada to develop the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). While our approach generates distinctive estimates for the expansion of demand, many of the associated published variables from the COPS are incorporated into the analysis. Specifically, these include rates of retirement, death, emigration, immigration, and school leaving (graduates and others who join the labour market). Given that our own estimates for the expansion of demand differ from those produced by COPS, the associated projections with occupational mobility are also unique.
The initial process aligned the GDP forecast by culture domain and subdomain with the most closely linked industry category from our long-term national forecast. The next step involved examining the historical relationship (based on Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators) between output (revenues) and GDP to produce measures related to outputs (revenues). These forecasts were further adjusted based on trend performance and on the feedback received from industry consultations (including focus groups, online survey, and stakeholder interviews). Ultimately, the overall outputs (revenues) need to account for the total revenues of domains and subdomains stemming from all sources of funding including own-sales, government, exports, sponsorship, and other sources.
Once estimates of real GDP and real output were established, estimates of labour productivity were introduced to provide a forecast of employment. Labour productivity is measured simply as output (revenues) per worker, and the trend was based on the history provided by Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators. Labour productivity in each domain and subdomain is projected to be influenced going forward by the overall trend labour productivity from the Conference Board’s long-term economic forecast.
Table C.1 shows the reported average annual growth for the sector, domains, and subdomains over the 2012–2017 period and the projected average annual forecast for the 2017–2026 period.
Table C.1
Actual & Projected Potential Performance of the Cultural Sector
(annual growth in revenues)
|
Domains |
Subdomains |
Average annual growth (2012–2017) |
Average annual growth (2017–2026) |
|
Cultural Sector, all products and services |
|
1.6% |
1.7% |
|
Culture products and services only |
|
0.9% |
1.8% |
|
Heritage and libraries |
Total |
5.1% |
1.6% |
|
|
Archives |
1.9% |
2.3% |
|
|
Libraries |
4.0% |
3.4% |
|
|
Cultural heritage |
4.5% |
1.0% |
|
|
Natural heritage |
6.8% |
2.4% |
|
Live performance |
Total |
4.6% |
1.9% |
|
|
Performing arts |
4.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
Festivals and celebrations |
3.6% |
0.9% |
|
Visual and applied arts |
Total |
2.8% |
2.4% |
|
|
Original visual art |
4.9% |
2.8% |
|
|
Art reproductions |
1.4% |
1.9% |
|
|
Photography |
3.8% |
0.2% |
|
|
Crafts |
-4.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
Advertising |
4.6% |
2.9% |
|
|
Architecture |
-2.4% |
-1.5% |
|
|
Design |
4.7% |
3.8% |
|
Written and published works |
Total |
-4.2% |
0.8% |
|
|
Books |
-7.0% |
-1.4% |
|
|
Periodicals |
-6.2% |
-1.1% |
|
|
Newspapers |
-10.5% |
-4.6% |
|
|
Other published works |
-5.6% |
1.1% |
|
|
Collected Information |
-6.6% |
-0.8% |
|
|
Multi-subdomain |
0.2% |
2.9% |
|
Audio-visual and interactive media |
Total |
2.3% |
1.8% |
|
|
Film and video |
5.1% |
2.1% |
|
|
Broadcasting |
-0.3% |
1.2% |
|
|
Interactive media |
4.8% |
3.0% |
|
Sound recording |
Total |
3.0% |
2.1% |
|
|
Sound recording |
2.6% |
1.0% |
|
|
Music publishing |
3.1% |
2.3% |
|
Education and training |
|
1.9% |
1.3% |
|
Governance, funding, and professional support |
|
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
Multidomain* |
|
1.9% |
1.7% |
|
Other products and services |
|
4.4% |
1.5% |
* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).
To translate the projections of revenues into jobs, the analysis needed to consider the projections for labour productivity (calculated as revenues per job). Table C.2 shows the calculated average annual growth in productivity for the sector, domains, and subdomain over the 2012–2017 period and the projected average annual forecast in labour productivity for the 2017–2026 period.
Table C.2
Actual & Projected Labour Productivity of the Cultural Sector
(annual growth in labour productivity, %)
|
Domains |
Subdomains |
Average annual growth (2012–2017) |
Average annual growth (2017–2026) |
|
Cultural Sector, all products and services |
|
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
Culture products and services only |
|
-0.2% |
0.9% |
|
Heritage and libraries |
Total |
-1.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Archives |
-3.8% |
0.4% |
|
|
Libraries |
-4.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
Cultural heritage |
-0.9% |
-0.5% |
|
|
Natural heritage |
-0.9% |
0.2% |
|
Live performance |
Total |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
Performing arts |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
Festivals and celebrations |
-0.6% |
-0.3% |
|
Visual and applied arts |
Total |
1.5% |
1.7% |
|
|
Original visual art |
1.6% |
1.7% |
|
|
Art reproductions |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
|
Photography |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
|
Crafts |
-3.6% |
-0.1% |
|
|
Advertising |
1.0% |
1.9% |
|
|
Architecture |
-1.0% |
-1.7% |
|
|
Design |
4.0% |
2.9% |
|
Written and published works |
Total |
-0.7% |
1.2% |
|
|
Books |
-4.1% |
-0.9% |
|
|
Periodicals |
-3.0% |
-0.1% |
|
|
Newspapers |
-3.7% |
-2.2% |
|
|
Other published works |
-2.0% |
0.7% |
|
|
Collected Information |
-3.0% |
-0.6% |
|
|
Multi-subdomain |
2.2% |
2.5% |
|
Audio-visual and interactive media |
Total |
0.0% |
0.3% |
|
|
Film and video |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
|
|
Broadcasting |
2.4% |
2.7% |
|
|
Interactive media |
2.3% |
0.9% |
|
Sound recording |
Total |
-1.1% |
1.1% |
|
|
Sound recording |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
|
Music publishing |
-1.6% |
1.0% |
|
Education and training |
|
-0.8% |
0.2% |
|
Governance, funding, and professional support |
|
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
Multidomain* |
|
-3.7% |
-0.1% |
|
Other products and services |
|
0.7% |
0.7% |
* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).
While the process up to this stage results in generating labour demand projections at the domain and subdomain level, these projections do not immediately align with specific cultural occupations. Hence, a transformation was required to establish the degree to which projections of labour demand at a domain and subdomain level translate into projections at an occupational level. This transformation was required so that potential imbalances with the labour supply could be identified.
To do this transformation required a few key assumptions. The first is that the primary driver of labour demand for each cultural occupation (identified in the framework) will be the domain to which that occupation is assigned. To ensure that the resulting occupational projections incorporate (where applicable) the more specific labour demand projections at the subdomain level, further assumptions were required to distribute the share of workers by occupation across each of the subdomains in that domain. While efforts were made to provide a reasonable distribution of each occupation across subdomains, it should be recognized that this is an area where a human resource module would provide a more definitive distribution.
Based on this distribution across subdomains, Table C.3 shows the projected average annual growth in labour demand over the 2017–2026 period.
Table C.3
Projected Growth in Labour Demand of Cultural Occupations
(annual growth in labour demand, %)
|
Domains |
Subdomains |
2017–2026 |
|
Cultural occupations, total |
|
0.9% |
|
Heritage and libraries |
Total |
2.6% |
|
|
Archivists |
2.3% |
|
|
Records management and filing clerks |
2.7% |
|
|
Librarians |
3.3% |
|
|
Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks |
3.0% |
|
|
Library clerks |
2.6% |
|
|
Conservators and curators |
2.0% |
|
|
Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries |
1.6% |
|
|
Conservation and fishery officers |
2.5% |
|
|
Biological technologists and technicians |
2.5% |
|
|
Forestry technologists and technicians |
3.0% |
|
|
Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers |
1.9% |
|
Live performance |
Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations |
1.4% |
|
|
Musicians and singers |
1.6% |
|
|
Dancers |
1.5% |
|
|
Actors and comedians |
1.5% |
|
|
Other performers |
1.6% |
|
|
Conference and event planners |
1.5% |
|
|
Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists |
1.1% |
|
Visual and applied arts |
Photographers |
0.7% |
|
|
Photographic and film processors |
1.1% |
|
|
Artisans and craftspersons |
0.3% |
|
|
Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations |
-0.6% |
|
|
Architects |
0.5% |
|
|
Landscape architects |
0.9% |
|
|
Urban and land use planners |
0.7% |
|
|
Architecture and science managers |
0.5% |
|
|
Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists |
0.5% |
|
|
Architectural technologists and technicians |
0.6% |
|
|
Drafting technologists and technicians |
0.6% |
|
|
Web designers and developers |
0.7% |
|
|
Industrial designers |
0.6% |
|
|
Graphic designers and illustrators |
0.8% |
|
|
Interior designers |
0.9% |
|
|
Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers |
0.8% |
|
|
Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products |
0.9% |
|
|
Graphic arts technicians |
1.0% |
|
|
Authors and writers |
0.8% |
|
|
Editors |
0.8% |
|
Written and published works |
Journalists |
-0.9% |
|
|
Translators, terminologists, and interpreters |
-0.1% |
|
|
Desktop publishing operators and related occupations |
-0.1% |
|
|
Supervisors, printing, and related occupations |
-0.4% |
|
|
Printing press operators |
0.4% |
|
|
Printing machine operators |
-0.6% |
|
|
Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations |
0.5% |
|
|
Binding and finishing machine operators |
-2.4% |
|
|
Correspondence, publication and related clerks |
-2.3% |
|
|
Film and video camera operators |
-2.2% |
|
|
Announcers and other broadcasters |
-2.2% |
|
|
Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified |
-2.4% |
|
Audio-visual and interactive media |
Broadcast technicians |
1.7% |
|
|
Computer programmers and interactive media developers |
2.3% |
|
|
Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers |
1.4% |
|
|
Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts |
2.1% |
|
|
Audio and video recording technicians |
-0.6% |
|
|
Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts |
2.1% |
|
Sound recording |
Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts |
1.0% |
|
|
Archivists |
1.0% |
|
Multidomain* |
Records management and filing clerks |
1.9% |
|
|
Librarians |
2.0% |
|
Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks |
1.9% |
|
|
|
Library clerks |
1.8% |
|
|
Conservators and curators |
1.8% |
* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).
To fully isolate any potential mismatches between the demand for labour and the supply of labour, all components of both demand and supply need to be exposed. The previous table focused purely on expansionary demand (or contractionary in the case where rates are negative). However, aside from this, businesses and self-employed individuals will look to fill vacant positions left from retirement, emigration, and other forms of attrition. In addition, positions will be available as individuals leave for occupations elsewhere in the economy. The positions that will need to be filled are referred to as “job openings.” Employment and Social Development Canada has estimates of the total job openings that are expected for each occupation between 2017–2026 on its website.[1]
In terms of potential candidates to fill those positions, supply will come from school leavers, immigration, and mobility across other occupations. In aggregate, the potential supply of workers is referred to as “job applicants.”
The aggregated components of labour demand amount to an estimate of the number of job openings that will be present in the 2017–2026 period. On the other hand, the aggregated components of labour supply reveal the number of applicants that are assumed to respond to the level of job openings. See Table C.4.
Table C.4
Projected Number of Job Openings and Job Applicants for Cultural Occupations, 2017–2026
(based on 2017 level of employment in each occupation)
|
Domains |
Occupation |
Job openings |
Job applicants |
Potential gap |
|
Heritage and libraries |
Archivists |
47.5% |
42.7% |
4.8% |
|
|
Records management and filing clerks |
56.5% |
54.7% |
1.8% |
|
|
Librarians |
56.9% |
51.3% |
5.7% |
|
|
Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks |
57.6% |
55.6% |
2.0% |
|
|
Library clerks |
57.6% |
56.1% |
1.5% |
|
|
Conservators and curators |
44.3% |
39.9% |
4.3% |
|
|
Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries |
40.6% |
37.6% |
3.1% |
|
|
Conservation and fishery officers |
39.7% |
34.7% |
5.0% |
|
|
Biological technologists and technicians |
36.0% |
31.1% |
5.0% |
|
|
Forestry technologists and technicians |
39.7% |
27.7% |
12.0% |
|
|
Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers |
51.9% |
47.5% |
4.4% |
|
Live performance |
Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations |
31.1% |
28.9% |
2.2% |
|
|
Musicians and singers |
41.3% |
35.2% |
6.1% |
|
|
Dancers |
41.3% |
35.2% |
6.1% |
|
|
Actors and comedians |
41.3% |
35.2% |
6.1% |
|
|
Other performers |
34.1% |
33.9% |
0.2% |
|
|
Conference and event planners |
42.9% |
43.0% |
-0.1% |
|
Visual and applied arts |
Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists |
37.1% |
34.2% |
2.9% |
|
|
Photographers |
21.0% |
27.6% |
-6.6% |
|
|
Photographic and film processors |
20.1% |
20.5% |
-0.4% |
|
|
Artisans and craftspersons |
29.3% |
29.0% |
0.3% |
|
|
Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations |
27.6% |
30.3% |
-2.6% |
|
|
Architects |
35.5% |
37.2% |
-1.7% |
|
|
Landscape architects |
34.4% |
38.5% |
-4.2% |
|
|
Urban and land use planners |
34.4% |
38.5% |
-4.2% |
|
|
Architecture and science managers |
36.6% |
39.5% |
-2.9% |
|
|
Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists |
26.5% |
26.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
Architectural technologists and technicians |
30.8% |
31.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
Drafting technologists and technicians |
30.8% |
31.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
Web designers and developers |
20.6% |
22.2% |
-1.6% |
|
|
Industrial designers |
33.3% |
32.7% |
0.6% |
|
|
Graphic designers and illustrators |
18.8% |
22.6% |
-3.8% |
|
|
Interior designers |
30.5% |
31.9% |
-1.3% |
|
|
Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers |
32.4% |
30.5% |
2.0% |
|
|
Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products |
32.4% |
31.2% |
1.3% |
|
|
Graphic arts technicians |
19.7% |
23.0% |
-3.3% |
|
Written and published works |
Authors and writers |
29.3% |
31.5% |
-2.2% |
|
|
Editors |
29.2% |
31.4% |
-2.2% |
|
|
Journalists |
26.4% |
29.5% |
-3.1% |
|
|
Translators, terminologists, and interpreters |
39.5% |
39.8% |
-0.3% |
|
|
Desktop publishing operators and related occupations |
26.4% |
27.1% |
-0.7% |
|
|
Supervisors, printing, and related occupations |
34.6% |
37.0% |
-2.4% |
|
|
Printing press operators |
8.9% |
9.9% |
-1.1% |
|
|
Printing machine operators |
9.5% |
10.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations |
9.5% |
10.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
Binding and finishing machine operators |
9.5% |
10.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
Correspondence, publication and related clerks |
17.4% |
18.4% |
-1.0% |
|
Audio-visual and interactive media |
Film and video camera operators |
31.1% |
30.0% |
1.1% |
|
|
Announcers and other broadcasters |
33.0% |
33.4% |
-0.3% |
|
|
Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified |
31.0% |
27.3% |
3.6% |
|
|
Broadcast technicians |
6.6% |
12.8% |
-6.2% |
|
|
Computer programmers and interactive media developers |
36.3% |
35.7% |
0.6% |
|
Sound recording |
Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers |
54.4% |
51.7% |
2.7% |
|
Multidomain* |
Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts |
27.0% |
27.2% |
-0.1% |
|
Audio and video recording technicians |
27.0% |
27.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts |
27.0% |
27.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts |
54.4% |
51.7% |
2.7% |
* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).
Table C.4 was compiled by using our estimates for the expansion of demand along with our own estimates for occupational mobility. The rest of the components for job openings and job applicants were taken directly from the Employment and Social Development Canada’s COPS tables. A regression analysis was conducted to understand how the COPS projections of occupational mobility are correlated with the expansion of demand. Perhaps not surprisingly (holding everything else constant), the two are closely linked. In fact, the coefficient of correlation was 0.94. Hence if the expansion of demand for an occupation was 10 per cent stronger than for another occupation (all other things being equal), the occupational mobility would be 9.4 per cent stronger.
This is important because while we had assumed all of the other components of the COPS projections would remain stable (despite a different expansion demand projection), we recognized that the degree to which an occupation with stronger growth might appeal to other applicants would change. However, rather than assume the relationship was 1:1 (as the overall regression might suggest for all occupations), the ability to recruit from other occupations could be limited by the specific nature of work. Various assumptions were made to reflect the likely ability to recruit from other occupations. Table C.6 shows the occupational flexibility to recruit from other occupations. An occupational flexibility figure of 100 per cent indicates that if demand were to increase by 10 per cent (over the base case), it is likely that there would be ample available resources to find 10 per cent more qualified applicants (based on specific skills).
Table C.5
Estimated Occupational Flexibility for Cultural Occupations
(ability to recruit more workers if demand were to change)
|
Domains |
Occupation |
Occupational flexibility |
|
Heritage and libraries |
Archivists |
50% |
|
|
Records management and filing clerks |
100% |
|
|
Librarians |
75% |
|
|
Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks |
100% |
|
|
Library clerks |
100% |
|
|
Conservators and curators |
25% |
|
|
Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries |
25% |
|
|
Conservation and fishery officers |
75% |
|
|
Biological technologists and technicians |
35% |
|
|
Forestry technologists and technicians |
35% |
|
|
Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers |
75% |
|
Live performance |
Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations |
25% |
|
|
Musicians and singers |
25% |
|
|
Dancers |
25% |
|
|
Actors and comedians |
25% |
|
|
Other performers |
50% |
|
|
Conference and event planners |
75% |
|
Visual and applied arts |
Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists |
25% |
|
|
Photographers |
25% |
|
|
Photographic and film processors |
100% |
|
|
Artisans and craftspersons |
10% |
|
|
Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations |
75% |
|
|
Architects |
75% |
|
|
Landscape architects |
25% |
|
|
Urban and land use planners |
25% |
|
|
Architecture and science managers |
50% |
|
|
Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists |
100% |
|
|
Architectural technologists and technicians |
25% |
|
|
Drafting technologists and technicians |
25% |
|
|
Web designers and developers |
100% |
|
|
Industrial designers |
50% |
|
|
Graphic designers and illustrators |
50% |
|
|
Interior designers |
75% |
|
|
Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers |
50% |
|
|
Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products |
75% |
|
|
Graphic arts technicians |
50% |
|
Written and published works |
Authors and writers |
75% |
|
|
Editors |
75% |
|
|
Journalists |
75% |
|
|
Translators, terminologists, and interpreters |
75% |
|
|
Desktop publishing operators and related occupations |
100% |
|
|
Supervisors, printing, and related occupations |
75% |
|
|
Printing press operators |
100% |
|
|
Printing machine operators |
100% |
|
|
Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations |
100% |
|
|
Binding and finishing machine operators |
100% |
|
|
Correspondence, publication and related clerks |
100% |
|
Audio-visual and interactive media |
Film and video camera operators |
75% |
|
|
Announcers and other broadcasters |
50% |
|
|
Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified |
75% |
|
|
Broadcast technicians |
75% |
|
|
Computer programmers and interactive media developers |
25% |
|
Sound recording |
Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers |
25% |
|
Multidomain* |
Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts |
25% |
|
Audio and video recording technicians |
25% |
|
|
|
Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts |
25% |
|
|
Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts |
25% |
* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).
While Table C.5 provides a snapshot of the degree to which there may be potential mismatches (“gaps”) between labour demand and labour supply in the economy for each occupation, the issue of self-employment is not directly accounted for. In particular, it was assumed that the concept of “shortages” does not apply for the proportion of workers in each occupation who are self-employed. In fact, as we heard during the focus groups, it could be the case that the self-employed proportion represent a surplus of workers (to some degree). This is a sentiment that was heard often during the focus groups. Focus group participants said average earnings are often very low because there are too many people for the marketplace to support fully.
To identify the proportion of the labour market where shortages could still exist, our approach considered not only the share of each occupation that was self-employed but also the degree to which those self-employed workers might be result in a labour surplus (among self-employed workers). Hence, if there was a situation whereby an employer required more workers, then self-employed workers would fill some (or all) that demand. The degree to which self-employed workers were viewed as contributing to a labour surplus was estimated to reflect the percentage difference among average wages of self-employed individuals to individuals not self-employed. Table C.7 shows the percentage of workers in each occupation who are self-employed and the share of the average wage of self-employed individuals relative to workers who are not self-employed. Given that there are many reasons why individuals choose to be self-employed (beyond not having opportunities to work for an employer), the formula to reflect oversupply from the average wage disparity (between self-employed workers and non-self-employed workers) was adjusted by 50 per cent. For instance, if self-employed workers received 80 per cent of the wage of non-self-employed individuals then it was assumed that there was a 10 per cent surplus of labour (rather than a 20 per cent surplus).
Table C.6
Self-Employment in Cultural Occupations
(percentage of workers in each occupation)
|
Domains |
Occupation |
Self-employed rate |
Self-employed wage (% of non-self employed) |
|
Heritage and libraries |
Archivists |
0% |
n.a. |
|
|
Records management and filing clerks |
2% |
61% |
|
|
Librarians |
n.a. |
59% |
|
|
Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks |
1% |
25% |
|
|
Library clerks |
0% |
n.a. |
|
|
Conservators and curators |
13% |
50% |
|
|
Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries |
10% |
38% |
|
|
Conservation and fishery officers |
0% |
n.a. |
|
|
Biological technologists and technicians |
4% |
45% |
|
|
Forestry technologists and technicians |
7% |
55% |
|
|
Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers |
9% |
53% |
|
Live performance |
Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations |
38% |
75% |
|
|
Musicians and singers |
61% |
84% |
|
|
Dancers |
36% |
64% |
|
|
Actors and comedians |
44% |
56% |
|
|
Other performers |
47% |
71% |
|
|
Conference and event planners |
17% |
52% |
|
Visual and applied arts |
Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists |
67% |
64% |
|
|
Photographers |
70% |
59% |
|
|
Photographic and film processors |
13% |
66% |
|
|
Artisans and craftspersons |
59% |
60% |
|
|
Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations |
59% |
59% |
|
|
Architects |
29% |
67% |
|
|
Landscape architects |
27% |
60% |
|
|
Urban and land use planners |
9% |
62% |
|
|
Architecture and science managers |
6% |
74% |
|
|
Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists |
23% |
49% |
|
|
Architectural technologists and technicians |
16% |
61% |
|
|
Drafting technologists and technicians |
10% |
65% |
|
|
Web designers and developers |
28% |
54% |
|
|
Industrial designers |
20% |
59% |
|
|
Graphic designers and illustrators |
31% |
62% |
|
|
Interior designers |
40% |
61% |
|
|
Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers |
34% |
65% |
|
|
Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products |
23% |
42% |
|
|
Graphic arts technicians |
19% |
59% |
|
Written and published works |
Authors and writers |
51% |
53% |
|
|
Editors |
30% |
50% |
|
|
Journalists |
17% |
67% |
|
|
Translators, terminologists, and interpreters |
41% |
45% |
|
|
Desktop publishing operators and related occupations |
14% |
73% |
|
|
Supervisors, printing, and related occupations |
9% |
81% |
|
|
Printing press operators |
7% |
70% |
|
|
Printing machine operators |
5% |
65% |
|
|
Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations |
4% |
65% |
|
|
Binding and finishing machine operators |
4% |
57% |
|
|
Correspondence, publication and related clerks |
4% |
58% |
|
Audio-visual and interactive media |
Film and video camera operators |
33% |
73% |
|
|
Announcers and other broadcasters |
17% |
77% |
|
|
Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified |
40% |
96% |
|
|
Broadcast technicians |
5% |
72% |
|
|
Computer programmers and interactive media developers |
10% |
58% |
|
Sound recording |
Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations & conductors, composers and arrangers |
54% |
68% |
|
Multidomain* |
Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts |
22% |
72% |
|
Audio and video recording technicians |
28% |
71% |
|
|
|
Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts |
13% |
69% |
|
|
Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts |
12% |
72% |
* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).
To establish the relative performance of the domains and subdomains at the provincial level, we downloaded data from Statistics Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators on jobs, GDP, and output (revenues). The estimates of GDP and output were then deflated (using consumer prices) to approximate real values (in 2012 dollars). Based on The Conference Board of Canada’s long-term provincial forecast for information and cultural industries and for arts, entertainment, and recreation industries, job growth estimates were determined for the six core cultural domains in each province for the years 2017–2026. All the domains, with the exception of live performance, were benchmarked to the performance of information and cultural industries, while live performance was benchmarked to the performance of arts, entertainment and recreation industries.
The first component of the provincial forecast determines estimates of performance for the cultural sector using the measures of jobs, GDP and output (revenues). These estimates are then used (as in the national forecast) as inputs into the analysis for labour demand and supply of cultural occupations at the provincial level. The same assumptions are used to determine the transformation at the provincial level as that used in the national forecast process—namely, that the primary driver of labour demand for each cultural occupation (identified in the framework) is assumed to be the domain to which each cultural occupation is assigned. In addition, the distribution of workers by occupation across each of the subdomains is the same distribution that exists at a national level. Once again, while efforts were made to ensure that this yields a reasonable distribution of each occupation across subdomains, it should be recognized that this is an area where a human resource module would provide a more definitive distribution. In this case, the human resource module would require provincial and territorial breakdowns of data.
[1] Employment and Social Development Canada, “Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS).”